Mortgage rates may decline this year, but not by much. Analysts expect the 30-year fixed rate to stay in the mid-6% range throughout 2025 and 2026, although the forecast is far from guaranteed. In January 2023, some experts predicted that rates would be around 4.5% by the end of 2024, which obviously didn't come to pass.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says it best: "Forecasts are highly uncertain. Forecasting is very difficult. Forecasters are a humble lot with much to be humble about."
Rates will stay relatively high as long as the economy keeps outpacing expectations – and either way, economists don't anticipate a dip into the 3% or 4% range in the foreseeable future. Here are the mortgage rate predictions over the next two years:
• Fannie Mae: Rates Will Average 6.4% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026
The December Housing Forecast from Fannie Mae puts the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.6% in the beginning of 2025, declining to 6.1% in the first quarter of 2026. Fannie Mae economists say that while policy changes implemented by the Trump administration could impact the outlook for mortgage rates, they didn't explicitly take this into account in this month's forecast update.
• MBA: Rates Will Stay Above 6.3% in 2025
The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts in its Mortgage Finance Forecast that mortgage rates will gradually slide from 6.6% at the beginning of 2025 to 6.3% throughout 2026. Unlike Fannie Mae, MBA does point to the presidential election as a reason for its upward revisions over the past two months.
• NAHB: Rates Will Average 6.36% in 2025 and 5.93% in 2026
The National Association of Home Builders expects the 30-year mortgage rate to decrease to around 6.5% by the end of 2024 and fall below 6% by the end of 2025, according to the group's latest outlook.
• Realtor.com: Rates Will Average 6.3% in 2025
The 2025 Housing Forecast from Realtor.com calls for another year of strained housing affordability and high mortgage interest rates. The real estate listings website predicts rates will average 6.3% in 2025, falling every-so-slightly to 6.2% by year-end.
• Wells Fargo: Rates Will Average 6.41% in 2025 and 6.34% in 2026
In its latest U.S. Economic Outlook, Wells Fargo expects rates to stay above 6.2% for the next two years.
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