By Brandon Cornett | Copyright © HBI 2024 | All Rights Reserved

Have questions about the current state of the Tampa-area housing market, or predictions for 2024 – 2025? You’ll find both of those things below, plus a lot more!

In a housing market forecast published earlier this year, the Tampa Bay Area real estate market was ranked as one of the hottest for 2024. Looking forward, forecasters predict that home prices in the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area will continue climbing into 2025.

This report explains why the Tampa area is experiencing such hot housing market conditions in 2024, and answers some frequently asked questions from home buyers.

Tampa Housing Forecast: One of the ‘Hottest’ Markets

At the start of 2024, housing analysts from Zillow created a list of the 10 hottest housing markets of 2024. And Tampa was among them.

To create these rankings, the authors analyzed the 50 largest metro areas in the U.S. with a focus on housing-related factors. They considered the speed at which homes are selling, anticipated home price appreciation during 2024, and other real estate and economic factors.

The 2024 Zillow forecast ranked Tampa among the 10 hottest housing markets, giving it the #10 spot. (Buffalo, NY was ranked as the #1 hottest market, by the way.)

To quote their report:

“[Tampa’s] diverse economy and the 244 days of sunshine it clocks on average in a year should continue to be a powerful magnet for newcomers this year. Homes in this Gulf Coast city last about 24 days on the market before finding a buyer, and the typical home is worth $375,338 … the forecast calls for a 2% increase in home values in 2024.”

In a more recent forecast for the Tampa housing market, team Zillow predicted even bigger price gains for the next year or so. In March, the company forecasted a 6% home price increase for the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area from February 2024 to February 2025.

Such predictions are the equivalent of an informed guess. So we shouldn’t get too wrapped up in the exact numbers being projected here. The takeaway is that home prices within the Tampa Bay Area real estate market are expected to continue a gradual climb through 2004 and into 2025.

A Lot More Inventory Available in 2024

Here’s another prediction for the Tampa Bay Area real estate market in 2024.

Home buyers entering the market over the coming months should have more properties to choose from, thanks to steady inventory growth. In fact, a recent report showed that the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro area experienced one of the largest year-over-year increases in housing market supply.

According to the March 2024 Realtor.com report:

“The inventory of homes actively for sale increased in 29 out of 50 of the largest metros compared to last year. Orlando (+38.5%), Miami (37.4%) and Tampa (36.3%) experienced the most inventory growth.”

It’s also worth noting that all three of the housing markets with the most inventory growth are located within the state of Florida. If this trend continues going forward, these Florida real estate markets could become a lot more buyer-friendly into the second half of 2024.

But getting back to the Tampa Bay area, this market had about a 4.1-month supply of homes for sale as of March 2024. That’s a big improvement from the record lows of the pandemic era, when there were hardly any homes available to purchase.

Tampa currently has a higher level of housing market supply than most major metros areas across the U.S. And that’s good news for home buyers who are planning to buy a home in the Tampa Bay Area later in 2024.

Is Tampa more of a buyer’s or seller’s market now?

It’s a much better year for home buyers, for sure.

But the market still slightly favors sellers due to an ongoing supply-and-demand imbalance. This dynamic could shift over the coming months, however, due to the inventory growth mentioned previously.

It’s also worth noting that a lot of major metros across the country are still experiencing strong seller’s market conditions. The Tampa Bay Area real estate market stands out in the sense that it has more supply than most major metros, and more favorable conditions for buyers as a result.

In short: The Tampa Bay Area is likely shifting from an extreme seller’s market to a more balanced market. This means buyers have somewhat more negotiating power and might see less frantic competition, but sellers still hold some advantages.

What’s the forecast for the Tampa Bay real estate market?

Predictions and forecasts for the Tampa housing market predict steady home price growth for the foreseeable future, combined with a better balance between supply and demand.

Buyers who plan to enter the market over the coming months should pay close attention to home value trends, in particular.

The Tampa Bay Area seems to have rebounded from a mild price correction (decline) that occurred during late 2022 into 2023. So at this stage, the most likely scenario is that home prices will trend upward for the foreseeable future.

In that scenario, Tampa-area home buyers who postpone their purchases until later in 2024 could have less purchasing power due to higher prices.

Will home prices in Tampa rise or drop during the rest of 2024?

No one can predict future home-price trends with complete accuracy. But the general consensus forecast for the Tampa real estate market suggests that prices will rise through 2024 and into 2025. Beyond that is anyone’s guess.

Tampa Metro Area Overview

The Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) — more commonly known as the Tampa Bay area — is a major population center located on the Gulf Coast of Florida. It’s the 17th largest metropolitan area in the country, with over 3.1 million residents as of the latest census.

• Primary cities include: Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Clearwater
• Other large communities: Riverview, Brandon and Spring Hill
• Counties in this MSA: Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, and Hernando

The Tampa area offers numerous white sand beaches along the Gulf of Mexico, with Clearwater Beach and St. Pete Beach frequently ranked among the best in the United States.